- This week on "Black Issues Forum" our political round table weighs in on how 2022 ended, what to watch for in the 2024 presidential election, and how North Carolina would fare in an impending recession.

Stay with us.

- [Announcer] "Black Issues Forum" is a production of PBS North Carolina, with support from the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation.

[upbeat music] ♪ - Welcome to "Black Issues Forum" I'm Kenia Thompson.

from Roe v. Wade to the war in Ukraine, 2022 definitely left its mark in history.

After two years of covid dominating news in the headlines, the new hot topics were actually somewhat refreshing.

Now with the 118th Congress finally sworn in and a speaker in place, the question is, are they ready to get down to business and work on the solutions?

Or do the next two years portend vengeful lawsuits and stalemates?

I wanna welcome North Carolina Senator Natalie Murdock of Durham, and political analyst Steve Rao for the conversation.

So at the end of the year, Nancy Pelosi announced that she would not seek reelection as the Democratic House leader.

And now for the first time, we have an African American representative, Hakeem Jeffries in the lead congressional position as the House Minority Leader.

Senator Murdock, I'll start with you.

- Yes.

- What do you think fueled that decision?

And how significant was it that Hakeem Jeffries is now filling those shoes?

- Yes, first and foremost, just wanna thank Speaker Pelosi for her phenomenal service.

I remember when she was elected and what that meant to me, especially as a woman that's now in politics.

So wanna thank her for her leadership.

And honestly had the pleasure of meeting now leader Hakeem Jeffries.

And when I met him in person, I totally understood why he was elected as leader.

He is approachable, he is warm, but as we also have seen, he knows how to be assertive and be aggressive.

And he is a unifying force for our party.

So I am thrilled that he currently is leader, and was not at all surprised when those elections came in his favor.

From the Congressional Black Caucus, to even the progressive wing, he has been able to really, really unify the party.

And we saw that really play out in the speaker election.

And look forward to the leadership that he's gonna bring.

And I think it was a strategic decision.

You saw a lot of the senior leadership that transitioned, they're still there to provide that counsel.

But I saw that they really saw a need to pass that baton and really usher in a new generation of leadership, because if not now, when?

This is the perfect time for them to learn how to lead on their own, because the time will come where they will be on their own.

And so just wanna thank them for showing the right way to have a peaceful transition of leadership.

- Yeah, Steve, I know you've got some thoughts onto why she made that decision.

I'd love to hear what you've got to add to that.

- Yes, well, it's a pleasure to be here with you this morning.

And I think first of all, one of it was a personal decision.

I mean the brutal attack on her husband Paul, which we're glad he's okay, was very frightening to the Pelosi family and the country.

But I think secondly, and Senator Murdock alluded to this, is just the legacy that she leaves behind as the first woman Speaker.

We often forget that even though she was branded by many Republicans as kind of a democratic elite, a real progressive, she had significant legislative accomplishments.

You know, she was elected speaker in 2006, 2018, left in 2010 briefly.

But she worked with President Obama to help get the Affordable Care Act passed, which brought healthcare to millions of Americans.

And working with President Biden, she's had the $1.9 billion COVID Relief Package, the $750 billion Climate Reduction Act.

And let's not forget the $3.5 trillion ARP plan.

And those dollars are going all over the United States.

So at the end of the day, I think it was a great chance for her to pass the torch on to the next generation.

And definitely what I'm hearing across the board, even across the aisle in Washington, is that this Hakeem Jeffries is a rising star.

He'll become most likely the first African American Speaker, and will be third in the line of the presidency.

So it's great news for all.

And I think she's going out on the top of her game.

- Yeah, exciting and historical things happening.

You both mentioned that she was the first woman to hold this position, for 20 years.

- Yes, yes.

- Right?

So does this open the door for other women who might be considered for this position or other similar positions?

Natalie, go to you.

- It really does.

And I'm gonna highlight two congressional members that I look up to.

The first will be Lauren Underwood out of Illinois.

She was at the time the youngest Black woman to be elected in the history of US Congress, and is now in leadership.

So she has a lot of time, she's in her '30s.

I definitely think she's someone to keep an eye on, and works across the aisle, because she represents a very purple district.

And I also will mention our North Carolina's own congresswoman, Deborah Ross.

She has come in, hit the ground running, is close friends with now Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi.

She's also in leadership as well, was a leader here in North Carolina in our State House.

So I think our own Congresswoman Deborah Ross is also someone else to watch out for.

- Absolutely.

- Interesting.

Steve, I wanna come to you for this question.

Why do you think it took so long for Representative Kevin McCartney to be elected Speaker?

And how will having him in leadership impact Black communities nationwide, and then specifically here in North Carolina?

- Well, I think the speaker's election, 15 votes to become the speaker was really a carryover of what happened in the midterms.

I think voters, both Republican Moderates and Independents were looking for a return to normalcy.

And it really was a clear message from voters that they didn't want the turbulence and Trumpism.

So many Trump-backed candidates that ran for state offices, federal offices and also governorships lost, and they lost big.

And I think what it means in terms of... You know, what it means for minority communities is Kevin McCarthy is just not gonna be a strong leader.

It's gonna be hard for him to get legislation passed because he barely won the speakership.

But just what he stands for.

You know, in terms of standing in Mar-a-Lago after the insurrection, standing there with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, or former president.

I mean, you know, I just think it's... Hopefully, eventually he'll have to come to the center to get things done.

But I don't think it's good news for Democrats, good news for minorities across the country.

So only time will tell, but.

- Yeah, yeah.

Senator, I'd love your thoughts on that as well.

- Yes, I just won't skip over how horrifying it was that we did not have a Congress for some time.

A lot of folks don't know that you cannot be sworn in as a congressional member if you do not have a speaker.

So we had a Senate that was sworn in, that was fully functioning, but we didn't have a full Congress because we did not have a US House.

And so I think it really is a preview to how turbulent the next two years will be.

And honestly he'll be the most inconsequential speaker we've had in our history because of the rules that he signed off on.

They can challenge his speakership at any time.

Folks for bartering their votes for committees that quite frankly they don't even deserve to be on, two congressional members that were censured are now provided with committee assignments.

One congressional member that lied their way to Washington DC who should not even have been seated as a member.

So I think it's just a true, true preview to what's to come in.

And I think it's a great lesson for leaders that sometimes you can give up too much.

And I think he negotiated himself out of having the ability to have true power over the next two years.

- Yeah.

It's amazing how these things can happen though.

Like, you know, I asked the question how do we allow some of these decisions to be made?

How does that happen?

- Yes.

I really think in his instance, he's wanted to be speaker since 2015.

So I think he said, this is my moment.

This is my time.

And no matter what it takes, no matter what deals I have to cut, I'm gonna do it.

I, myself would not have done that.

I think there are other individuals that would've been more unifying and I think it also provides too much leverage to the most extreme wing of their party.

So I think it's really, really concerning.

And again, a lesson of how not to lead and how not to apply leverage.

It's not worth putting the entire nation on hold and not seating Congress just for a very small group of extreme individuals to get what they want.

- Yeah.

It's definitely a lesson learned.

Hopefully, we will not repeat history in this matter.

Let's shift a little bit and bring 2024 into the picture.

Believe it or not, it's not too early to start talking about who our next president will be.

Polls show that Democrats did considerably better in the 2022 midterm elections better than previous years.

And some are asking what changed?

Steve, I wanna come to you.

Why did the Democrats do so well and what was reflected there or here in North Carolina?

- Well, I think first of all, what I mentioned earlier you know, just the return to normalcy.

I mean, you know, the Democrats did very well because people were tired of extremism and election deniers.

And what's clear nationally is that that just did not work.

And I think Roe v. Wade and the overturning of that did turn out women even maybe moderate Republican women to vote.

And I do think that helped the Democrats secure these elections.

I think it's also important to put it in perspective how big this win was for President Biden.

Only three times since 1922 as a president of the United States, not lost seats in the US Senate or the opposing party gained seats and lost fewer than 10 house seats.

It happened in 1934, 1962, and 2002.

I think it, you know, it's just a showing that the Democrats did very well against Trumpism.

And I think it sets the stage well now for the presidential elections in terms of whether the president will run again and if he does run again who are the Republicans gonna put forth?

But if they continue to do what they did in this election, I don't think it's going to work.

So let's see what they do even in North Carolina, who are they gonna run for Governor?

Right now it's looking like Josh Stein versus Mark Robinson, but maybe, you know, North Carolina will vote for the common sense leadership that we need.

But anyway, that's my take of why it happened, what we can learn from it and how it sets the stage.

- Yeah.

Senator, you've got your fingers on the pulse here in North Carolina.

Was that reflected locally, the Democrats taking a lead?

- Yeah, I think it was really a mixed bag.

I mean, nationwide we saw the red wave or what some call red tsunami did not quite land but in North Carolina it was very much a mixed bag.

I will begin with the huge congressional wins we had.

I think more than anything it was a win for fair maps.

Unfortunately, we did have court drawn.

They made my colleagues have fair congressional maps and you saw a seven seven split.

And that's what we should have.

We are a mixed state.

There is no reason that we should only have two, three or four Democrats go into Congress.

And so we had my own Senate colleague now Congressman Wiley Nickel that won a very competitive seat that a lot of folks didn't think he was gonna win.

And it was huge to make sure that we have those tight margins in Congress.

And I think a lot of it was the economy.

A lot of folks were talking about inflation.

And yes, that was an issue, but we did see that the inflation rates were finally starting to go down that gas prices were finally starting to go down.

Unemployment is still at an unprecedentedly low percentage.

So I think all of that was an impact where folks were able to say I'm gonna bet on common sense and not on extremes.

And I think the stage has been set in North Carolina.

I think it's really gonna come down to who we run here for Governor will really, really motivate people and get them to the polls and in the General Assembly and the state Senate.

We are in the super minority by one.

And why the Supreme Court finally ruled that our state Senate maps do need to be redrawn.

And so we really, really were just objected to a lot of gerrymandering and the House and the Senate.

And I think with fair Maps we would've fared much better with our House and Senate races here in North Carolina at the state level.

- That's interesting.

Now this question is to both of you.

We know that Biden's in office now he is eligible for reelection but will he be back in the White House come November, 2024?

Steve, what are your thoughts?

- Well, I think he will run again.

He said he's gonna run again.

I think that he's done a good job as president, whether his age.

I mean, that's a decision he's gonna have to make with the first lady, his family, his granddaughters who I've heard maybe don't want him to run again.

But I do think that he will, let's just assume he's gonna run again.

And I think that if he didn't run again, you know, whether Vice President Harris will run.

We've heard rumors of Governor Newsom running.

I've heard our own governor, Rick Cooper's name thrown out.

I think he's one of the best governors in the United States but would he run or be on the ticket?

You know, and then also Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, the governor of Michigan.

So I think, but I do think he will run again.

I think that if the economy gets a little bit better, we get inflation down.

We start seeing these ARP dollars come into states.

The states are sitting on about $250 billion of cash.

A lot of that money's gonna be coming back in North Carolina.

That could be good for President Biden in his reelection.

So a lot of it's gonna be hinged on the economy and who the Republicans run, whether it's Donald Trump who I do think will be the nominee, but DeSantis, you know, so we'll see.

- Yeah.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on that, Senator, also adding, who are some emerging people that we should be watching out for?

- Yes, I definitely, definitely think that more than anything president Biden is keeping an eye on who the Republican nominee will be.

And I do think that if it's Donald Trump, he definitely will run again.

I think that was the main reason why he left private life to jump out there and run.

And I am thankful for it.

He saved the nation when he did that.

He and now Vice President Kamala Harris.

So I do think on the Republican side it will come down to DeSantis and Trump.

There are a few other names that we're hearing but I think it's really gonna come down to those two because they have the the national following as well as the fundraising.

Definitely think governors from Michigan as well as California will be top, top contenders.

And even in polling our own Governor Cooper, there was a national poll last year and he came in eighth out of 10.

So he is polling very, very well.

I don't know if that guarantees that he will run but he definitely is on the radar of so many folks because he's one of a very small list of Democratic governors who have won in a southern state two times when Donald Trump was on the ballot.

And Governor Cooper has done that and is president of the National Governor's Association.

So he's definitely gonna be on that short list as he should be.

So I think those will be the top, top contenders.

And of course, vice President Harris in the event that President Biden does not run but I think the gains he made this last election in the state of the economy, he would be hard pressed to not run for reelection.

- I mean, I don't know about you but it'd be nice to kind of insert someone new into the equation though.

We've heard time and time again that Trump is in a lot of hot water.

What are some of the latest allegations and do they disqualify him from a presidential run again?

Steve, I know you've got three things that qualify our president to run again.

Tell us what those are.

- Article two of our Constitution, there's only three requirements to be the president of the United States.

You have to be 35 years of age.

You have to be living in the United States for 14 years.

And a citizen of the United States, natural born citizenship.

There's nothing in our Constitution that says that someone who's charged of crimes would not be able to run for the White House or win the nomination and the presidency.

Now, the 14th Amendment, there are some provisions in there that Congress could remove someone from office if they, for, were example were supporting insurrection.

So President Trump's been charged with obstruction of justice, not cooperating with a criminal proceeding.

And the elephant in the room is insurrection.

So unfortunately a lot of these charges are symbolic.

The short answer to your question is he can run again.

If he does win the nomination, he can be on the ballot and he could win the presidency again.

Now, if he does win and this investigation continues, then he could perhaps be impeached or removed from office.

So I think we also have to look at who his vice presidential candidate would be.

- Right.

So you mentioned.

- I hope it won't get to that.

- You, I hope we don't either.

- Hope we don't get to that.

- We don't either.

You mentioned January 6th and everything that's coming along with that and the recent White House document scandal.

What are some of the factors that will actually strengthen his run as a candidate in 2024?

Natalie, I'd love to go to you for that.

- Oh, that would strengthen Biden's run or Trump's run?

- Trump's run.

- Oh, I don't think there's a lot that would would strengthen his run.

I mean, I know Republicans are trying their best to equate you know, finding documents with, you know, in the the president's residence along with Donald Trump.

But I think there's a huge difference.

The fact that President Biden is a sitting president today and has security clearance and Donald Trump is not president today.

So it's very concerning that we found those documents in Mar-a-Lago.

And that investigation will run its course first.

It takes precedence.

And so we will have to see how that all shakes out.

But definitely I think as more charges come forward it will be more difficult for him to continue to run and the fact that a lot of his candidates just to not fare well, his brand is not as strong as it was even the last six months.

So I think that's gonna hurt him more than anything that he's losing support amongst his own base, even amongst evangelical leaders, which is really the core of his support.

- Yeah, and time will tell.

So we will see.

Economists are predicting that the US will face a recession in 2023.

Mild, but a recession nonetheless.

Steve, I wanna come to you.

How will this impact North Carolina and the decisions our local leaders will make for us?

- Okay, well, I mean, I think, you know, obviously inflation we have inflation, we have rising gas prices because of the war in Ukraine.

And so all economists say we're headed into a recession and a global recession.

So what that means in North Carolina.

First of all, I think the first thing is affordable housing.

We are in a housing crisis.

You know, housing sales are down, so cities and governments, Wake County, the state of North Carolina, Senator Murdoch and her colleagues have to explore innovative options to provide more affordable housing.

I think the North Carolina carbon plan is also important as we see energy prices rise.

The Utilities Commission approved this plan just in December of last year.

What are the mix of renewable solar, wind?

How do we get to net zero by 2050?

Senator Murdoch and her colleagues were drafting this legislation.

How do we reduce power emissions by 70%?

I think that's important.

Transit, commuter rail, light rail, bus transit to get you know, you know, people around to where they need to go, especially when gas prices are so high.

And the final thing that I'll say is, you know just looking at, you know, energy, you know reducing energy costs, you know, just making sure that labor is a crisis because we don't have enough people.

So training and retraining workers, making sure, but the good news is unemployment is low.

And as I said, I do think North Carolina is in a good position because of the cash reserves coming in.

I want to give a shout out to Congresswoman Ross.

She's had a lot of success bringing in dollars.

You know, even in Morrisville, 250,000 for solar panels, a half a million for small business recovery.

So as these dollars come in that's gonna help us lift the economy but the legislators, the, the mayors, the city councilors have to look at making those investments so we can see projects which creates jobs and economic opportunity.

- Yeah, great point Steve.

Senator Murdoch, when 2008 we were hit hard, right?

- Yes.

- And we don't wanna see that again.

How do we prepare for a recession?

Even what we experienced in the pandemic, we don't want any of that happening, especially for small business owners.

As Steve alluded, how do we prepare?

- Absolutely, and I think more than anything, I'm a legislator, but I'm also a business owner myself.

And so I know how difficult it was during kind of our greater recession and then the downturn that we saw during the pandemic.

So definitely, definitely concerned about our small businesses that really are the backbone of our economy.

And more than anything, really concerned about my colleagues that have more concerns around those bigger corporations instead of average everyday people.

And we've already seen it telegraphed at the national level.

They want to roll out another, you know, national sales tax and at the state level continuing to cut taxes for the most wealthy.

And we've already seen time and time again that trickle-down economics does not work.

And so I'm really concerned around making sure that we have safety nets for those that are the most vulnerable.

Luckily unemployment is low, but daily huge tech companies, we're hearing.

10,000 layoffs here, 14,000 layoffs there.

So we really, really need to make sure that we do a much better job with our unemployment insurance.

We have some of the worst in the southeast and we had a huge opportunity to do something around that during the height of COVID and didn't do that.

And so I really, really would encourage my colleagues to do more of the positive steps we've taken by raising $15 an hour wages for those that work in the school system.

Looking at raising our state minimum wage.

I think we have to look at wages.

And the other concerning thing about continuing to cut taxes, local leaders like Steve, they deal with it.

They have to have balanced budgets and so a lot of it falls on our cities and counties when the state continues to cut our taxes so low that it really, really does fall on those local municipalities that that's where the rubber hits the road.

People want their roads paved, they're the first ones that get those phone calls.

So we really, really have to take a balanced approach and we can't keep passing it off to our local governments 'cause they will feel that pain more than anyone as they did during the height of the pandemic.

- Yeah, and we're seeing things like eggs being $8 a dozen, home seekers choosing to rent instead of purchasing.

Really quickly, Steve, what else do you think we might see?

- Well, I think Senator Murdock summed it up so well.

I mean, I just think we're gonna continue to see rising gas prices which are continuing to rise inflation.

So, you're gonna see the Fed continue to raise interest rates and you're gonna see a contraction of the economy.

So, what you're gonna see is people are gonna have to change their behaviors by saving more money, getting off of high interest credit cards, making sure that you have emergency funds set up.

And the legislature is gonna ha- And I think transportation is also really big.

I wanna end on that point.

I was at the Transportation Summit just yesterday and Secretary Boyette just received a billion dollar check from State Treasurer Dale Folwell 'cause they replenished the fund, but more fuel efficient cars, gas tax revenue going down, transportation costs going up, projects are being delayed and the revenue model is unsustainable.

So, how can we get innovative in our transportation?

Because as we grow as the eighth largest state, the more people come here, the more companies that come here, we gotta pave and build more roads and bridges.

- Indeed.

- And so this is gonna be an important factor that Senator Murdock and her colleagues are gonna have to deal with.

- Indeed, indeed.

Couple of minutes here at the end of the show, I wanna talk about an end-of-year news breaking title.

When Brittney Griner was finally released to go home after almost 10 months in a Russian jail on allegations of smuggling narcotics, some rejoiced, some questioned it.

Why did it take so long?

Senator, I'd love to come to you.

- Yes.

- How do we avoid something like this again in the future?

- Yeah, I think for folks that typically do not pay attention to global politics, saw a crash course in diplomacy and kinda what happens when you have two nations that are at odds with each other.

We're in the middle of the war where Ukraine and Russia are in conflict and so unfortunately Russia had the leverage.

They knew that we did not want this high profile American in custody along with other Americans that do remain in custody, some prisoners of war, some that are Marines.

And so, essentially Russia uses as an opportunity to say you have a prisoner that we want to come back to Russia.

And so, I think that's why the negotiations took so long because the US knew this was a very dangerous individual who I believe was sentenced to 20 or 30 years.

And it's my understanding through the negotiations it was kinda take it or leave it, it was a one-to-one ratio.

There was never an opportunity for us to get two Americans to swap for the one prisoner we had here in Russia even though his crimes were really, really extreme and concerning.

In my opinion, it was worth it.

We needed to bring Brittney home.

There was no reason she should have been over there that long.

She was targeted because she was a celebrity.

Russia knew exactly what they were doing and just wanna thank her family for continuing to rally around her.

I was one of those individuals that did that.

And so, folks may wanna criticize, but as a politician you have to deal with the deal that is on the table and that was the deal and we're just glad that we brought her home safely.

- Yeah, Steve, about 30 seconds here.

What are some lessons learned?

- Well, first of all, don't travel to Russia right now.

I mean, and it's pretty simple, but it's just very dangerous with the relationships with two countries.

I think just making sure that we continue to have those diplomatic conversations between our state departments.

The art of diplomacy, it is an art and to make sure that we continue to look at where we can swap prisoners, but also gain leverage against Russia, which is we've got to cut - Yeah.

- Vladimir Putin's supply of oil.

We've got to cut him off of oil because the more oil he gets, the more he's gonna continue to do what he's doing.

- Yep, great conversation.

Senator Murdock, Steve Rao, thank you for being here.

- Thank you.

- We invite you to engage with us on Instagram using the hashtag black issues forum.

You can also find our full episodes on pbsnc.org/blackissuesforum and on the PBS video app.

Thank you for watching.

I'm Kenia Thompson.

I'll see you next time.

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